Washington Hangover Blog

March 2020

Washington Signals They’re Not Competing for a Title This Year

No I’m not talking about Covid 19, although that is unfortunately a possibility. I’m inferring the language being communicated through their free agency actions. 

The Washington Redskins traded their starting cornerback Quinton Dunbar the other day to the Seattle Seahawks for a 5th round pick. ESPN graded the Redskins a D+ and Seattle a B+ for the trade. NFL insider and 106.7 the Fan beat reporter Craig Hoffman, said anything less than a 2nd round pick for Dunbar would be a loss. But is it?

Each NFL trade is unique. There’s no consistency to their value. The Redskins are still recovering from all of the Bruce Allen bungles and perhaps there’s some PTSD going around as the Redskins have failed at getting much value for disgruntled and or disrespected players. You like that?! I certainly don’t.

The Redskins clearly did not want to pay Dunny a new contract, but why? Dunbar dealt with nerve damage last year that could continue into his career. He has never played more than 11 games, but performed well last year when on the field. Corners aren’t a dime-a-dozen position group either. In fact, I would argue it’s the most difficult position to play in all of sports next to Quarterback. The team is undeniably worse without Quinton Dunbar. So what does that tell us?

The Redskins aren’t ready to win.

This sounds negative, but it’s the realistic approach Ron Rivera brings to the table: a long term plan. If the Redskins aren’t in position to compete now, (they’re not) they must build for the future. They weren’t willing to pay Dunny, but the other narrative is;  If you don’t want to be a Redskin, then get out. Now.

There’s a nobility to the old school approach Ron brings to an organization desperate for change and direction. If you work hard, line up, play hard and perform, you will be rewarded. If you wanna pop off, and publicly air dirty laundry, get out. Now.

Ron values work ethic and commitment, and while Dunny was never in trouble, he’s a headache that Rivera doesn’t have to put up with. This approach is particularly effective for weeding out team distractions, building cohesion, chemistry, and developing a unified culture, Rivera’s culture. 

The downside of this approach is you start to box yourself in. By being more particular on players, you reduce the talent pool capable of operating in your system. The players spin this as not being able to “be myself,” so I wonder if strong personality players like Darrius Guice will soon be on the chopping block? The Skins signed Peyton Barber, and although he was fairly unproductive in Tampa, he brings the attitude that works in Ron’s system. The signing could be a red flag to fans. 

Rivera’s bold, old-school approach has worked in the past, but it has also failed him. He was fired from Carolina not too long ago.

The game of football has evolved. While nobody wants to deal with an Antonio Brown, it’s hard to deny the talent of star “prima-donna” personalities. Sometimes compromise is not best. Sometimes it’s necessary to thrive. 

Jay Gruden was a player’s coach, and I’m sure Jay would have done everything he could to keep Dunbar, but Jay needed to win now to keep his job. Ron’s not in that boat. Ron’s way is a long term culture-defining approach. It’s hard to argue, as the Redskins have tried many times the other way, valuing big time stars over team unity. Will it produce a winning culture though? Like everything in these uncertain times, we’ll have to wait and see.

March 27th, 2020

By Collin Chute

Washington Hangover Blog

Sept. 2019

Jay Gruden has an interesting relationship with the run game.

By interesting, we mean it’s a torturous one.

Like a lover denying you every Sunday, and the only consistency you find is its absence. 

For a while, it’s flowers and chocolates.

But eventually it devolves into “Fix me something to eat, will ya!”

When Gruden runs the ball, we win. But soon he forgets all about it and we’re left in the same place.

Stood up.

Left looking for answers. 

Last year when the Redskins were winning, they did it through Adrian Peterson. AP was a healthy scratch for the first time in his 14 year career this past Sunday.

Derrius Guice was ineffective, no fault of his own, but he wasn’t able to create something out of nothing. Now that he’s diagnosed with a meniscus injury to his knee, it’s unclear how much time he’ll miss.

After Guice was Chris Thompson and Kendall Smallwood in the backfield. Guys that aren’t meant to carry the rock 20 times in a game. There was a man on the sideline without his uniform that fit the bill.

The team’s offensive MVP of 2018. Check it out:

In 2018, when AP ran the ball 19 times or more, the Skins were 6-1.

When AP gained over just 55 yards the Skins were 6-2.

When AP carried the ball less than 19 times the Skins were 1-8.

It’s something I’ve been harping on since Gruden arrived in Washington.

He’s a former quarterback himself. Jay won four Arena League Championships as a player and two as a head coach. He is 4th all time in passing yards at Louisville University. So, he’d rather throw the ball. Understandable. When it comes to our overall league rankings in terms of rushing play percentage over the past 5 years we finished 11th in 2018, 18th in 2017, 25th in 2016, 14th in 2015, and 18th in 2014. 

After week 1 here in 2019 the Redskins rank 26th in rushing play percentage. The top 11 teams in rushing play percentage after week one are a combined 10-1. Jay is only slightly under the league average for rushing play percentage in his career. This isn’t a terrible thing. Except, we know that he will abandon the run for an entire game. While it is true that if a team is down they’re going to need to be more aggressive and throw the ball, there must be balance. 

Last week was an opposite example where The Redskins lead 20-7 at half time and Jay still refused to run. I could agree that Philadelphia has the best defensive line in all of football, so it is makes sense to have a game plan attack through the air. It was successful in the first half. Yet, Guice did not look healthy. And it begs the question of why on earth was AP sitting. We were told it was for the special teams play of running back Kendall Smallwood. Huh?

When you only attempt 13 carries in an entire game the defensive line can jump the snap quicker -only looking to rush the passer, there’s less of a need to contain anymore. With penalties and unsuccessful passes, Washington was continually pushed into 3rd and long situations. Keenum needed 3rd and manageable. Drives were ending quickly, leaving the defense tired. The Redskin’s defense was exhausted as Philadelphia stuck to their game plan and never panicked- somehow managing to run the ball 31 times despite trailing 17-0. 

Lack of regard to the clock was the slow demise of Washington, and time management has never been a strong suit of Jay Gruden’s. With Guice most likely out, the belly of AP is only an arm length’s away. If Gruden isn’t willing to embrace it and be more balanced, time may catch him by the end of the year.

Sounds like we’re going to have a pretty frequent Redskins Hangover.

Sept. 12th 2019
By Collin Chute